Darth Jobs -- Is Apple Switching to the Dark Side?

The rumor mill is revolving around the reports that started on News.com (and Cnet) that Apple will announce at its WWDC conference on Monday that it will switch to Intel CPU’s. Most current Windows users like the move because they think Apple will port OS X to run on every PC. That’s not likely to happen. It would be uncharacteristic of Apple not to incorporate a check for an Apple BIOS during the system boot. Apple’s not likely to give up its computer hardware business, not at first. A few years down the line, if Apple decides it can compete with Microsoft head-to-head in the software world and third party vendors are releasing enough drivers for OS X to make it feasible, it might happen. However, if this is true, Apple is running perhaps the biggest risk it has since its creation.

This is a major change, and its impacts are not fully appreciated by the PC press, at least from what I’ve seen so far. Apple could literally destroy its current user base. To illustrate the point, let me discuss what such a move would mean to me personally.

Those of you who have read my blogs previously know I am a “switcher”, meaning I am a convert from the Windows platform. I had never seriously considered a Mac and still didn’t think much of them as late as five years ago, even after I got married to a woman who had known nothing but Macs. That all changed with Apple’s release of OS X and the flat-panel iMac. Video production I had been struggling with on the Windows platform was easy on the Mac. So, I invested a lot of money and time in switching all my major computing to the Mac platform. I run a lot of the “pro” apps from Adobe and Apple.

If Apple moves to the x86 platform, every penny I’ve invested in this move would be lost by moving to new x86 Apple hardware, even if it is running on OS X. Every single application I own would have to be recompiled for the x86 architecture and repurchased. We’re not talking chump change here; new machines and software, including the stuff I have handed off to other family members, have cost me a total of approximately $12,000, and that figure is a guess and probably low. That’s money I’m still paying off. I won’t pay out that kind of money again to move in a new direction. I would stick with my current Apple hardware and software. Apple upgrades might well become a thing of the past. Certainly, if I’m running x86 CPU’s in every machine I own, the decision moves more toward one of cost than it does now.

The only way I can see this working is if Apple has engaged Intel to manufacture PowerPC CPU’s rather than the x86 architecture they are so famous for. To be honest, I don’t know enough about it to gage the difficulty of that. I suspect it is too difficult a barrier for Intel, even if Apple wants to head off in that direction.

If that is not the case, then Apple will run a huge risk with losing its current user base, the user base they will need to sustain the company while they make the move. But, tell me, what motivation would any of us have to invest in a platform we know is going to be dead in two years? Certainly, if that is what Apple is announcing, I will not recommend to friends or family they move to the Mac anymore. I don’t want them all pissed at me when, in a couple of years, push comes to shove, and they have to buy all new software to run on a new Mac. Even if the move to Intel CPU’s might be good for the company, there will be a very great risk that Apple might not survive long enough to get there.